Virtuous cycle

Bartlomiej Owczarek weblog

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Predictions are getting really bleak

From a meeting organized by Sequoia for its startups:

Upin, who knows a thing or two about money and markets, told the room that we are in the beginning of a long cycle, what he called a ?secular bear market.? This could be a 15-year problem, he said. This comment was accompanied by many slides that showed historical charts of previous recessions averaging 17-year cycles. He pointed out that the issue here is not the equity markets but the credit market, and that will take a long time to recover. He was ominous in warning the startups that this is a global issue, it is not a normal time, and is a significant risk not just to growth but to personal wealth.

As reported by gigaom.

Some depressing, but maybe inspiring advice for startups follows.


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  1. October 13th, 2008 | 9:15 am

    This is not depressing advice. If you’re a true entrepreneur, this is when you smell blood of competitors. If you have a viable business model, you’re going to be able to pick off good talent, negotiate better deal from vendors, and outlast the competition.